China's strategic maneuvers with African bases may be shrouded in mystery, but nations offering them hospitality are engaged in a delicate dance of political calculation.
For over three decades, China has maintained a curious tradition: each year, its foreign minister embarks on a pilgrimage to Africa, kicking off the global diplomatic calendar. This year, Foreign Minister Wang Yi continued this ritual, journeying to Egypt, Tunisia, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire. Intriguingly, all of these nations boast coastlines, sparking speculation about China's maritime interests. Yet, amidst ongoing conjecture about China's potential military bases in Africa, these coastal nations have rarely been at the forefront of discussions.
So, what could be driving China's current considerations regarding African bases? As the continent increasingly asserts itself on the global stage, while China faces its own economic challenges at home, the puzzle deepens. In this era of shifting power dynamics, where Africa is becoming increasingly multipolar and assertive, China's long-term strategy remains an enigma, leaving us to wonder about the true motivations behind its moves on the African chessboard.
China’s Base in Djibouti
China's sole base on the African continent, established in Djibouti within the strategic Horn of Africa region in 2017, initially presented itself under the banner of anti-piracy and safeguarding freedom of navigation. These objectives align with China's broader strategy of ensuring secure trade routes, a vital component of its global economic ambitions. Notably, this installation signifies more than a mere footprint; it symbolizes China's proactive stance in shaping maritime security dynamics.
Over time, what began as a modest "resupply facility" has evolved into a robust logistics hub, bolstered by the presence of up to two brigades from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). This transformation underscores China's commitment to fortifying its strategic presence in the region and highlights its readiness to adapt to evolving security challenges.
Moreover, China's interest in securing alternative trade corridors, such as the Mozambique-South Africa route, suggests a multifaceted approach to safeguarding its economic interests. While longer, this route offers potential advantages in terms of reduced geopolitical tensions, reflecting China's strategic foresight in diversifying its maritime assets.
In essence, China's base in Djibouti represents more than just a military outpost; it serves as a tangible manifestation of China's expanding global influence and its strategic imperative to safeguard vital trade arteries in an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape.
Houthi militants’ current attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and a renewed attack by pirates on shipping in the waters off Somalia have once again validated the strategic value of Djibouti.
The recent spate of attacks by Houthi militants on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, coupled with a resurgence of pirate activity off the coast of Somalia, serves as a stark reminder of the critical importance of Djibouti and its role in safeguarding key maritime routes like the Bab al Mandab Strait. These incidents underscore the strategic significance of ensuring the uninterrupted flow of sea lines of communication in the region.
China's presence in the Gulf of Aden to counter piracy dates back to 2008, with its 46th escort task force recently completing its deployment. Additionally, during the 2011 Libya crisis, China faced the daunting task of protecting thousands of its citizens with limited resources on the ground, a challenge that highlighted the necessity for a strategic foothold in Africa.
Yet, Djibouti's allure extends beyond China's military interests. It stands as an exceptional case, hosting a multitude of foreign bases due to its unparalleled geographic importance to various international partners. Notably, Japan and Saudi Arabia also maintain bases there, underscoring Djibouti's pivotal role on the global stage.
Despite China's substantial presence in Djibouti, its significance in understanding China's broader strategic intentions in the region is limited. The complexities of Djibouti's geopolitical landscape, coupled with the diverse array of international interests at play, suggest that China's motivations for expanding its military footprint in Africa may extend beyond the confines of its Djibouti base.
A Growing Liability
The reality is that military bases, despite their strategic advantages, can quickly become liabilities for their foreign governments, particularly in times of crisis.
A prime example is the situation unfolding in Niger, where the U.S. military has faced significant challenges in maintaining Air Base 201 due to diplomatic tensions with the Niger junta. The recent announcement by the junta expressing its desire to close the base has thrown one of the US military’s major investments in Africa into uncertainty. In response, there has been a flurry of U.S. diplomatic efforts, with high-ranking officials such as Marine Corps General Michael E. Langley and assistant secretaries Celeste Wallander and Molly Phee engaging in frenetic diplomacy in Niamey.
In light of these challenges, the U.S. military is now exploring alternative locations for a drone base in West Africa, a move that underscores the shifting dynamics of military presence on the continent. Secretary of State Blinken's recent visit to coastal West Africa likely touched upon this issue, as discussions with leaders in Cabo Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Angola took place.
Similarly, the British government faced arduous negotiations in 2021 to extend their training base lease in Kenya, highlighting the complexities of maintaining military presence in Africa. This comes amidst the closure of French bases in the Sahel and the dismantling of United Nations missions in the region.
Moreover, the struggles faced by India in its attempts to establish a military facility in the Seychelles and Russia's challenges in opening a navy facility in Sudan underscore the broader trend of navigating diplomatic hurdles across the African continent. However, Russia's negotiations for a military base in the Central African Republic indicate a potential shift in this trend.
In essence, these instances demonstrate the intricate diplomatic maneuvering and evolving geopolitical landscape surrounding military bases in Africa, reflecting the delicate balance between strategic interests and diplomatic realities for foreign governments.
Historically, hosting military bases has generated political capital for African governments, with varying degrees of success in boosting economic activity.
Historically, hosting military bases has generated political capital for African governments, with varying degrees of success in boosting economic activity. Engagement with great powers has been important for domestic legitimacy and regime survival but has not shown consistent results in benefitting non-elite citizenry.
Basing has also been lucrative for countries such as Djibouti, where, according to the International Monetary Fund, it accounted for an estimated 0.1 per cent of gross domestic product in 2020, and allowed Djibouti to leverage its strategic access to a critical chokepoint between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Djibouti’s troop contributions to African Union (AU) missions may also have helped the episodic containment of armed groups like Al-Shabaab, thriving in neighbouring Somalia.
A liability also for the host
Indeed, China remains acutely attuned to the shifting dynamics surrounding military agreements in Africa and is keenly aware of the potential pitfalls associated with such arrangements. Learning from past experiences, particularly instances like the evacuation of Chinese nationals from Libya in 2011 and the threats to its economic interests in South Sudan, China understands the importance of anticipating and mitigating risks to its citizens and investments abroad.
As African nations navigate their relationships with foreign powers and weigh the benefits and drawbacks of hosting military bases, China is likely to approach its engagements with caution, ensuring that it doesn't find itself blindsided by unforeseen developments. By maintaining a proactive stance and carefully assessing the evolving geopolitical landscape, China aims to safeguard its interests and protect its citizens from potential crises that may arise in volatile regions across the African continent.
Indeed, while China may aspire to expand its presence in Africa, the reality is far more complex. African nations, cognizant of the delicate geopolitical balancing act they must maintain, often hesitate to align themselves too closely with any single global power, including China. As a result, they may strategically rebuff or delay Chinese proposals for increased military presence on their soil.
African countries have valid reasons for exercising caution in their dealings with foreign powers. They seek to preserve their sovereignty, maintain autonomy in decision-making, and avoid being perceived as picking sides in global power struggles. By carefully navigating their relationships with China and other major players, African nations aim to maximize the benefits of foreign partnerships while minimizing potential risks to their own interests and stability.
In essence, while China may have ambitions for greater influence in Africa, the reality on the ground is shaped by the nuanced diplomatic dance between African nations and their foreign partners, reflecting the region's commitment to strategic autonomy and independence in the face of complex geopolitical dynamics.
What is China thinking?
It's highly probable that China will pursue a strategy focused on expanding existing civilian port infrastructure in Africa and integrating dual-use facilities into ports where it has significant investments. This dual-use basing model involves blending access to commercial ports with a limited number of military facilities, allowing China to downplay the overt military nature of its strategic port investments.
Chinese investments in African ports have been substantial, with approximately 100 ports being either built, financed, or currently operated by Chinese state-owned shippers, according to Chinese sources. By leveraging these investments, China can enhance its economic presence in Africa while simultaneously laying the groundwork for potential future military access.
The dual-use approach enables China to maintain flexibility and adaptability in its strategic positioning, without drawing undue attention to its military intentions. This strategy aligns with China's broader objectives of expanding its global influence through economic and infrastructure investments while maintaining a degree of strategic ambiguity.
In essence, by strategically integrating military capabilities into its extensive port infrastructure investments in Africa, China can further its economic and geopolitical interests on the continent while mitigating potential political sensitivities associated with overt military basing.
Wang’s trip to Africa appears to have been less focused on establishing a new basing agreement and more so on signalling China’s consistent commitment to high-level engagements on the continent.
Indeed, Wang's recent trip to Africa seems to have been geared less towards securing new basing agreements and more towards reaffirming China's longstanding commitment to high-level engagement with the continent. However, it's plausible that discussions during Wang's visit touched upon China's security interests in Africa.
These discussions may have encompassed various topics, such as safeguarding shipping lines through the Mediterranean and Suez Canal with Tunisia and Egypt, addressing fishing and piracy concerns off the coasts of Togo and Côte d’Ivoire, and possibly even outlining China's broader Global Security Initiative.
As Africa emerges as a more multipolar and assertive player on the global stage, foreign powers, including China, are being compelled to clarify their security interests in the region. This includes understanding whom they seek to protect and defend against, as well as from whom. China is likely to continue seeking partnerships and alliances to safeguard and advance its interests in Africa. However, the success of these endeavors will remain contingent upon navigating complex local politics and building relationships with key stakeholders.
Ultimately, while Wang's visit may signal China's intent to deepen its engagement with coastal Africa, it's essential to view it as part of a broader strategy aimed at exploring potential opportunities rather than as an immediate manifestation of concrete plans for military expansion in the region.
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